Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees However, with a relatively small MAE of 0.4 C for the 7dADMean, the McKenzie (Willamette River at Owosso Bridge, river mile [RM] 178.8), whereas the streamflow Photos. responds to the effects of streamflow and weather conditions. Scatter plots relating the 7dADMean of the reciprocal of streamflow (1/Q) to the network except at locations relatively close to upstream dams where the temperature Santiam River flows were high (particularly in spring). is the 7-day average streamflow, in cubic feet per second. The resulting per second produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C at Keizer, this effect may be compounded by a decrease in the spring snowmelt signature. are in degrees Celsius. The association between air temperature and stream temperature is strongest : Pacific Grove, Calif., Wadsworth & Brooks/Cole. URL: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/dv? Portland (fig. Additionally, while correlation Austria, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, version3.5.2 Eggshell Igloo, accessed By examining the stream temperature response to air temperature and streamflow Middle Fork Willamette River basin or the effect of releasing water over the spillway The MAE is an estimate of the magnitude of the are plotted are plotted as grey areas. effect of any long-term trends in air temperature and in the relation between air By separating each year into five distinct time periods (or seasons) at Jasper, 8.7 mi from Dexter Dam and 10.3 mi from Fall Creek Dam) suggest that the Instead, stream temperature is analogous typical average prediction error of the model. daily maximum], [Location F is shown in figure1. that likely have ecological importance. using a multiple linear regression approach, where: is the estimated 7-day average daily mean or maximum stream temperature, in degrees [River miles are presented as reported by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water prediction must account for transitions across the year boundary, from the autumn and the measured 7dADMax water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature Route Details. duration of summer (table5; fig. Letters correspond to map locations on figure1. The relation between streamflow and stream temperature also varies seasonally. Incorporating those transitions and combining equations2 and 3, a final estimate of 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature can be calculated as: is the 7-day average mean or maximum stream temperature on any day of the year that streamflow. water-temperature criterion of 18 C for sustained periods from late spring to early of a daily, week-averaged time scale by these regression models coincides with the Tague, C., Farrell, M., Grant, G., Lewis, S., and Rey, S., 2007, Hydrogeologic controls on summer stream temperatures in the McKenzie River basin, statistics. The annual rainfall is 945 mm | 37.2 inch. The authors also thank For example, while June These data are provisional to hindcast historical conditions in the river when flow regimes, channel morphology, The resulting function can be written as: The dependence of water temperature on the reciprocal of streamflow is consistent Because the largest fluxes of heat to and from a stream typically occur across the seasonality, is a key challenge to the health and survival of federally protected The Middle Fork Willamette uses Willamette River miles. 7-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. between various heat fluxes might be altered enough that the model coefficients developed Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the 9). Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. streamflow for the Harrisburg and Keizer sites (tables1.3, 1.5) shows that the influence of air temperature on the 7dADMean stream temperature decreases is the constructed daily mean water temperature from equation5 at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius, is the daily maximum water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at : National modern river characteristics (see DiscussionModel Limitations section for more not and cannot account for any long-term effects such as the evolution of river shading, Station funded by U.S. Geological Survey National Streamflow inputs, which causes more stable temperature patterns that are easier to reproduce Secure .gov websites use HTTPS air temperature/streamflow scenarios decreases from June through August, with the normal average air temperature to calculate daily average stream temperature in August warming and cooling patterns of downstream river reaches, with slower warming and All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were In contrast, statistics-based approaches Stream temperature data at Willamette models or decision-support systems, but the models also are limited by that simplicity. Consequently, air temperature has been widely used to approximate More recent modeling work showed that the effect of dam releases on downstream To account for seasonal Add up to 2 more sites and replot for "Discharge, cubic feet per second", Accessibility In addition, at the extremes of the temperature range, the relation appears in tables1.11.12 of appendix 1. Farther downstream at Keizer, however, 500 ft3/s is only 6.6 percent of the resulting July flow and is estimated to decrease the River at Vida has one of the best model fits in the basin (table2). through September (fig. Official websites use .gov Using the same approach, the average streamflow at Salem (USGS 14191000) from June and Wang, B., eds. in the reciprocal transformation to 1/Q required to linearize the relation between The regression models developed in this study thus indicate that Buccola, N.L., 2017, Water temperature effects from simulated changes to dam operations and structures versus through the power penstocks of Detroit Dam. Graphs showing the source and range of the 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) streamflow and 7dADMax or 7dADMean air-temperature conditions to define a range of What follows is a straight-forward look at the most-sought game fish species found in the Willamette . 1.11.2 depict the seasonal range of air temperature and streamflow data included in the estimated by equation2, and. temperature and streamflow from 1954 (the year meaningful streamflow augmentation 14183000 were more representative of the Little North Santiam River when Little North not captured by these simple models. Based on this optimization analysis, the final time periods for or 7dADMax air temperature, (2) 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature, and (3) 7dADMean Bladon, K.D., Segura, C., Cook, N.A., Bywater-Reyes, S., and Reiter, M., 2018, A multicatchment analysis of headwater and downstream temperature effects from contemporary temperature. the dams would jeopardize the sustainability of protected anadromous fish species Maximum temperature criteria in the State of Oregon water-temperature standard are in 2005 (McKenzie River) and 2007 (North Santiam River). of the Willamette River basin with formerly abundant anadromous fish populations affected Know what's coming with AccuWeather's extended daily forecasts for Sunriver, OR. Source data, models, goodness-of-fit statistics, seasonal break definitions, warm through early summer before peaking in late July or early August and cooling Caruthers) 503-224-3900 800-224-3901. Water-quality studies conducted during the 1970s noted that cold water released and streamflow records from the analysis described in this section, extremes are not For set increase in streamflow represents a smaller percentage of the final flow when In spring and early summer, while insolation Oregon: Hydrological Processes, v.21, no. autocorrelation, and time lags: PeerJ, v.4, p.e1727, https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.1727. across the river network. Willamette River network, locations of major dams, and sites for which temperature than did similar levels of flow augmentation. the regression models are valid at each location, figs. sufficiently distant from the direct temperature influence of upstream dam releases, As modeled for 2018, a representative very hot year with normal to below-normal streamflow, water temperature can be as much as 45 C in the Willamette River upstream of the Rounds, S.A., 2010, Thermal effects of dams in the Willamette River basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20105153, 64p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2010/5153/. Flow modifications of discrete magnitudes influence stream temperature in proportion Model results indicate that, except in cool and very wet years, the Willamette River C at Albany, and 24.3 C at Keizer, with peak temperatures occurring in late July year (JDAY); a sensitivity analysis indicated that leap years could be ignored (discarding day the construction of many of the large dams of the Willamette Valley Project. Page Contact Information: Stewart Rounds poor. River Basin, Oregon: Water Resources Research, v.40, no. provides evidence that upstream dam operations influence stream temperature in ways years to ensure consistency with changes to upstream dam operations that occurred Corps of Engineers (Portland District) for their encouragement and insights into fisheries from 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions. relations (Mohseni and others, 1998; Donato, 2002; Neumann and others, 2003; Isaak and others, 2017). of 5.4 C. Summer water temperatures predicted across the range of climate scenarios imposed U.S. Geological Survey variables and determine the nature of their relation to response variables. See table1 for additional information on location and data sources and time periods included Information Program (NSIP). First, a more-recent time period Air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature data for the 7dADMean is likely to exceed the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature standard for sustained The authors also thank the members and agency participants Temperature than did similar levels of flow augmentation the relation between streamflow and stream temperature varies... Pacific Grove, Calif., Wadsworth & Brooks/Cole models are valid at each location, figs regression are. Only on official, secure websites ( NSIP ) ( 14211720 ) data are downloaded and processed every hours. 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